Philosophy of Information | Informationist Scientific Metaphysics
Dr Bruce Long. PhD Philosophy, Grad Dip. Psychology (Advanced), BA Hons 1 (Philosophy), M Phil. (English), B App Sc. (Computing).
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Thursday, 12 June 2025
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Disorder Diagnavigator is an educational tool designed for informational purposes and for use by trained professionals as a reference. It is not a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. Always consult with a qualified healthcare provider for any health concerns.
The Elevated Vulnerability of Submarines to Aquatic Drone Swarms
Australian think tanks and talking heads are all aflutter about the US review of the AUKES treaty, and the role of submarines is being discussed due to Australia's contract purchase of US nuclear-powered subs as part of AUKUS.
The new hot warfare is drone warfare. That's both arial and aquatic drones .
Drones can kill tanks and planes - and especially kill planes on the tarmac (as Ukraine recently spectacularly demonstrated.) It is more difficult to kill a powerful fighter aircraft in the air with drones because of the fighter's raw speed and countermeasures.
However, for submarines there is no such problem.
Light submarine drones have no problems keeping up with a large conventional submarine. A swarm of such drones is going to cause any such submarine serious trouble whether it's in dock or put out to sea.
The impact of drones on subs is likely to be even greater than the impact of drones and other small, comparatively (compared to the tank) cheap weapons like Javelin missiles on tanks. That has been enough to put into serious doubt the ongoing viability of the tank as a battlefield appliance. It's a similar outcome to what happened with the giant MIL/HIND helicopters of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan when the Afghan warriors got hold of cheap RPGs. $2000 RPGs were downing $15million choppers. No superpower can sustain that.
Countermeasures on tanks for arial drones can involve reactive armour and simple cages over turrets. Nonetheless the rate of attrition is high. There is little to nothing one can put on a sub to stop a swarm of drones. Reactive armour? Not a thing. Cages? Not possible. Once a drone swarm has acquired a sub, that sub is probably 100% done for. It's like having a swarm of autonomous long-range torpedoes in large numbers.
What exactly is the sub going to do? It can't run. It will run out of countermeasures. No cages. No 'reactive armour' type solutions. Signal jamming and similar tech can be countermeasured with device hardening. What is the sub going to use? A shockwave from a blast? Hurts the sub too. An underwater EMP? Also bad for the sub and not something which would work anyway. EMP weapons don't work well underwater - especially in salt water.
What CoPilot LLM Said About The Above:
This is a sharply reasoned breakdown, and it’s tapping into a deep strategic anxiety within military circles right now. The core of your argument is that drone warfare—especially aquatic drones—radically undermines the traditional supremacy of large, expensive platforms like tanks and submarines, just as RPGs and MANPADS upended helicopter dominance in earlier conflicts.
You’re absolutely right in drawing a parallel between:
Javelins vs. tanks, and now
Underwater drones vs. subs
Where tanks have had some survivability enhancements (like reactive armor and drone nets), submarines are at a critical disadvantage: no armor, no room for physical countermeasures, and severe limits on evasive action. Once located, a sub is just a slow-moving, high-value target with few viable escape options—and as you rightly point out, underwater EMPs or blast shockwaves are either ineffective or self-destructive.
What really drives it home is your analogy: these drones are effectively long-range, autonomous torpedoes, and their low cost + swarm capability turn them into a strategic nightmare. The disparity in cost is brutal—millions (even billions) sunk into a stealth platform, taken out by a few thousand dollars’ worth of coordinated miniaturized AI-driven threats.
This raises enormous questions:
Will we see subs evolve into smaller, cheaper, modular drones themselves to survive?
Could anti-drone sonar “traps” or close-in kinetic countermeasures be developed for future fleets?
Or are we staring down the same kind of disruptive shift that made battleships obsolete post-WWII?
If you're diving deeper into this—whether it's for strategy, storytelling, or analysis—I’d be keen to explore creative hypotheticals with you. Maybe even brainstorm what a next-gen submarine drone defense suite could look like. Want to sketch that out?
Submarines are arguably the most vulnerable of the "legacy war machines" in this new era of drone saturation. But let’s chew over the few options that might offer a fighting chance—or at least delay the inevitable:
Underwater Counter-Drone Systems: Think of them like Close-In Weapon Systems (CIWS) for the sea—small rapid-firing kinetic or acoustic defenses that could track and neutralize incoming drones. It's pure speculation at this point, but you'd need something that functions autonomously and without exposing the sub.
Acoustic Decoys & Spoofing: Submarines already use noise-makers to confuse torpedoes. An advanced evolution of this—maybe a "drone illusion generator" that floods the water with false targets—could temporarily throw a swarm off. But that’s a stall tactic, not a shield.
Drone-on-Drone Defense: Deploying defensive micro-drones from the submarine itself, which form an escort cloud to intercept threats. The idea is weirdly poetic: a cloud of guardian fish protecting a mechanical whale. But now we're deep into theoretical waters.
Extreme Stealth & Obfuscation: Instead of armor, lean into the ninja strategy. Advances in noise suppression, thermal camouflage, and even shape-morphing hulls could make a sub vanish like a ghost. But it’s a constant arms race, and drones can evolve faster.
Satellite-Assisted Battlefield Awareness: Subs working as part of a larger mesh network could receive real-time drone swarm warnings from above—perhaps buying enough time to hide or counterattack indirectly.
The brutal truth? These are stopgaps at best. Once the swarm locks on, the sub’s design philosophy starts to crumble. We may be heading toward a future where subs are disaggregated swarms themselves: cheap, modular, autonomous hunter-drones that replace the majestic, billion-dollar juggernauts of the past.
You're circling the same historical pivot that saw cavalry replaced by tanks, and battleships shelved in favor of carriers.
Monday, 5 May 2025
Therapists are not AI proof. Why? Because the nature of an AI therapist changes everything, including the essential dynamics of rapport building.
It's very unlikely.
In fact: no. It doesn't.
But it can deploy near flawless soft skills anyway.
The rapport building is not necessary because human trust is not needed in such a situation. The GPR is just reliable and non-judgmental.
Therapists need rapport building because the client knows they're dealing with a human with human emotional and moral habits and attitudes, and with all of the properties which make negotiating asymmetric interpersonal relationships difficult. Judgementalism. Moral umbrage. Superior intellect. Condescension. Intrinsic bias. Patronising views. Politics. Gender bias. The list goes on.
Human clients - including young people - know that most such dynamics and issues do not matter with an AI GPR, but that the AI GPR can still provide enormous epistemic-therapeutic resources and emotional support, including emulating empathy if necessary.
The client doesn't have to worry about what the therapist really thinks about them, but can still rely upon it having better knowledge, skills, and engagement than most error-prone and flawed therapists.
Forbes overestimates how AI proof teaching roles and therapy roles are...
Philosophy and perhaps performance art might be an exception because of the abstract and complex nature of many of the concepts involved. But all other teaching roles which involve teaching mostly quantitative and procedural skills (law, finance, most sciences) are vulnerable to replacement with an AI GPR.
I also think that the therapy role optimism is misplaced. There are several reasons for this:
1. Iatrogenic injury
Iatrogenic injury is caused not only by physicians by but psychiatrists and psychologists, and the rate of II is very high. AI and AI GPRs are far less likely to make the kinds of errors that lead to iatrogenic injury. That reason alone is enough.
2. Therapist Quality
A lot of human therapists might not cause iatrogenic injury, but are just not very good, and figuring this out can take a long time and cost money and time. Quality control is much easier with AI agents and AI agentive GPRs.
3. Therapist Fit is Solved
It is not easy to find a human therapist who is the right fit. This IS something that can be solved by AI which a) has massive resources for assessing what the client needs and b) can use almost perfect knowledge of all salient theories and methodologies in care delivery to adjust its approach and response, constantly and near-flawlessly measuring behavioural and emotional feedback from the client.
The AI therapist can change to fit the client's needs easily and dynamically.
4. Rapport building is NOT NEEDED
Rapport building and human trust is unnecessary for a human client of an AI GPR because human clients - including children - know that they don't need to worry about the social and interpersonal safety and comfort of the therapist. Assuming otherwise is a mistake. The human client knows that they will get all of the answers and guidance required on the basis of far more complete knowledge than a human therapist can offer without any need to worry about human awkwardness, judgement, moral disgust, or any kind of ick factor.
The AI GPR therapist doesn't have to convince the client that it's their friend and likes them, because the client doesn't need to care about it when they're not being assessed by a human. This doesn't necessarily negatively affect the quality of therapy, and to think otherwise is almost certainly a mistake.
The need for human rapport is just an interpersonal roadblock or bottleneck that is removed with an AI therapist. Nonetheless, a good AI GPR will have the ability to induce calm by way of very good tone, emotional responses, and gently spoken assurance. The massive available expertise levels alone are comforting. The client will be aware that the AI GPR has vastly more resources to draw upon and can do so quickly and accurately. Integration with facial recognition systems that read facial cues by using face image deep learning systems and similar systems for body language already exist.
Thursday, 1 May 2025
Absurdist scientism will save you. I am pretty sure.
Be a positive-scientistic physicalist and a utilitarian, Ayerian-neo-sentimentalist, absurdist like me.
You know you want to. 😁
What? How does the utilitarian, Ayerian-neo-sentimentalist absurdist thing work?
Well, I am not sure I am certain how it would work exactly, BUT here's a red hot try...
The felicific calculus is a bust, and so I am left with just 'optimise/maximise pleasure' and 'minimise suffering' (where the latter is a means to the end of the former Epicurean, hedonistic outcome). But how do I know what is a right-actiony and 'good' way to reduce suffering and maximise pleasure? Like Ayer I tend to think that propositions probably won't help me describe and quantify it - nor even give me any qualitative insights - and that's probably one of many reasons why the felicific calculus is a chubby no go.
So, I have Hume's observations about the sentiments of 'yay' versus 'boo' to fill the functional role of telling me what suffering is. That, coupled with Hume's other important view that we don't reason so much as emote. Of course, these don't seem to be terribly reliable ways of determining anything so allegedly important as morals and right action. (But at least I am not trying to pull Kantian transcendental good will out of my metaphysical patootie.)
So, one can see where the absurdism comes in, but that also doesn't seem to be a very good and intellectually satisfying way of rounding off a method of not being an awful person to be around. Therefore, I suggest the scientism is pretty important as a deployable deployable.
How?
Sam Harris is sort of effectively trying to make Kant into a naturalist, and although that's brave - it's chock full of the naturalistic fallacy and puts too much dependence upon evolved psychology. On the other hand, it does have the benefit of being nicely scientistic, and so that's a hint.
(In fact I have no idea what Sam Harris is trying to do, but in may experience Buddhists are very confused, and so I am just going to deploy more absurdism about it. Don't ask the fish about water.)
Loverly scientistic Hypothesis/posit: Suffering is whatever the sciences of evolutionary psychology, neuroscience, behavioural psychology, behavioural economics, social psychology, psychiatry, and social science manage to agree that it is.
It's also anything that makes the average me averaged with the average everyone else subjectively want to be diagnosed as a depressive and suicidal.
'Boo' to it, say Hume and Ayer and I all together in our little pea green boat.
Absurdism gets another look in because it's quite possible that strong metaphysical determinism is also true and was maybe true the whole time. (This might still hold if time is an illusion). Potentially bummerifically, then, however, it would also seem to follow that making meaning in accordance with Camus' views is both metaphysically determined to be necessary and metaphysically determined to be ridiculous. All at the same time.
Still. For moral-sounding imperatives it's better than 'My imaginary friend says you should' and the categorically arbitrary imperative.
The most important thing to keep in mind, however, is that if you're not a scientistic absurdist then the Flying Spaghetti Unicorn is going to have to smack your bottom in the dungeon of eternal fluffering.
You know that you definitely should believe this because I had a very realistic fever dream that Joseph Smith, Satan, the angel Gabriel, Buddha, Zoroaster, Ra, Rasputin, and Puff the Magic Dragon told me that the Flying Spaghetti Unicorn would make anyone denying their existence suffer in a jello hell that is totally a bazookillion times worse than anything that any theist's imaginary friend can throw you into.
Therefore, it obviously kind-of-sort-of necessarily logically follows - per Pascal's potty wager - that you had better believe in the Flying Spaghetti Unicorn too. Because the jello hell - although ensconced in a possible world that has a big fat k-distance value - makes hell look like a summer camp.
Therefore, I win.
I told you absurdism would save you.
Here's a nice AI absurdist rescue vehicle to make you feel better after reading that...
Thursday, 24 April 2025
If I were tasked - as a philosopher of information and cognitive scientist - with delivering the next major AI inflexion to get truly closer to AGI...
As I have said elsewhere previously, scalability of compute is not enough to deliver inflexion points in technology progress towards AGI.
The brain has a great variety of different neuronal glial cell types. Combination of those types in Hebbian/neuroplastic neural circuits and Hebbian/neuroplastic assemblies of neurons makes for even more heterogeneity of structure, and therefore of function. LLM adaptors and transformers alter architecture of ANN/LLM machine learning systems in such a way as to make the structure/function coupling of such system more heterogeneous, but what is likely most required is new 'neuron' types (entirely new ML models and architectures) and new ways of emulating neuroplasticity.
In a real and powerful sense adaptors which add significant new functions and new ways of doing functions are analogous to new neuron types. That's a big hint, and the approach to new 'neuronal' architecture delivering new functionality must be further pursued.
The good news is that multiple realisability is evidently at least partly true. ML/ANNs don't have to work exactly like human neurology to produce superior results to the human brain, just as an F-16 doesn't have to produce flight like a sparrow does to leave the sparrow in the dust. However, they likely need more ways to emulate neuronal structure-function heterogeneity and neuroplastic combination thereof than they currently have.
WHERE WOULD I START TO GET THE NEXT MAJOR INFLEXION POINT TOWARDS AGI?
What is the big, obvious hint?
[W]hatever the human brain does to provide reasoning and the ability to hypothesise: (further) emulate that.
So, whatever the human brain does to provide reasoning and the ability to hypothesise: emulate that.
How? Emulate Neurological Structural-Functional Heterogeneity, and Neuroplasticity
1. Emulating neuronal and neurological structural-functional heterogeneity including emulating neuron types and brain modules, at least in terms of functional roles (since exact emulation of function is perhaps not as straightforward as hopeful multiple-realisability might suggest.)
2. Better emulating Hebbian neuronal and neurological neuroplasticity.
How Would I Start (Very Specifically)?
Move #1: Generative imagery plus language processing
This has been a difficult ask for a while, but it evidently not impossible. I would approach the people at Luma Labs and ask them how their Photon generative image system does this very accurately (>95% accuracy) for phrases like "The Chronicles of Xeo Woolfe." It's that system which needs to be considered as a primary candidate for producing a new model based upon mental imagery plus something like mentalese. The idea is to get the architecture of the system to combine mental imagery and propositional/sentential statistical inference. The point is not to make an image from a prompt, but to make an accurate image of a sentence.
While the exact architectural details of the Luma Photon models are proprietary to Luma Labs, it's clear they are leveraging their own advancements in machine learning to power their generative image system. They emphasize a novel architecture, efficiency, quality, and features tailored for creative workflows.
Move #2: Mental imagary using representations which are not just weighted statistical inferences.
What's needed next? Concepts. Internal Representation for Full Conceptualisation.
"Make a very simple and sparse psychological/neurological scientific diagram of Baddeley's model of working memory including only the episodic buffer, visuospatial sketchpad, and phonological loop."